Exponential growth, high prevalence of SARS-CoV-2, and vaccine effectiveness associated with the Delta variant
Elliott P., Haw D., Wang H., Eales O., Walters CE., Ainslie KEC., Atchison C., Fronterre C., Diggle PJ., Page AJ., Trotter AJ., Prosolek SJ., Ashby D., Donnelly CA., Barclay W., Taylor G., Cooke G., Ward H., Darzi A., Riley S.
Vaccination and disease The United Kingdom has high rates of vaccination for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), exceeding 80% of adults. As immunity wanes and social distancing is relaxed, how are rates of illness and severe disease affected by more infectious variants? Elliott et al . used reverse transcription PCR data from the REACT-1 study, which showed exponential transmission as the Alpha variant (B.1.1.7) was replaced by the Delta variant (B.1.617.2). After adjusting for age and other variables, vaccine effectiveness for the new variant averaged 55% in June and July of 2020. Despite the slower growth of the pandemic in the summer, it looks as if increased indoor mixing in the autumn will sustain transmission of the Delta variant despite high levels of adult vaccination. —CA