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In resource-limited settings, early mortality on antiretroviral therapy (ART) is approximately 10%; yet, it is unclear how much of that mortality occurs in care or after lost to follow-up. We assessed mortality rates and predictors of death among 12,222 nonpregnant ART-naive adults initiating first-line ART between April 2004 and May 2012 in South Africa, stratified by person-years in care and lost. We found 14.6% of patients died and being lost accounted for a minority of deaths across multiple definitions of loss (population attributable-risk percent ranged from 10.4% to 42.5%). Although mortality rates in patients lost were much higher than in care, most ART-related mortality occurred on treatment.

Original publication




Journal article


J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr

Publication Date





323 - 328


Adolescent, Adult, Ambulatory Care, Anti-HIV Agents, CD4 Lymphocyte Count, Female, HIV Infections, Humans, Lost to Follow-Up, Male, Middle Aged, South Africa, Young Adult