Cookies on this website

We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. If you click 'Accept all cookies' we'll assume that you are happy to receive all cookies and you won't see this message again. If you click 'Reject all non-essential cookies' only necessary cookies providing core functionality such as security, network management, and accessibility will be enabled. Click 'Find out more' for information on how to change your cookie settings.

To create a prognostic tool to quantify the 5-year cardiovascular (CV) risk in patients with newly diagnosed Wegener's granulomatosis (WG) and microscopic polyangiitis (MPA) without premorbid CV disease.We reviewed CV outcomes during the long-term followup of patients in the first 4 European Vasculitis Study Group (EUVAS) trials of WG and MPA. CV events were defined as CV death, stroke, myocardial infarction, coronary artery bypass graft, or percutaneous coronary intervention. Logistic regression was performed to create a model to predict the absolute risk of a CV event. The model was tested using the Wegener's Granulomatosis Etanercept Trial (WGET) cohort.Seventy-four (13.8%) of 535 patients with 5 years of followup from the EUVAS trials had at least 1 CV event: 33 (11.7%) of 281 WG versus 41 (16.1%) of 254 MPA. The independent determinants of CV outcomes were older age (odds ratio [OR] 1.45, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.11-1.90), diastolic hypertension (OR 1.97, 95% CI 0.98-3.95), and positive proteinase 3 (PR3) antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (ANCA) status (OR 0.39, 95% CI 0.20-0.74). The model was validated using the WGET cohort (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.80).Within 5 years of diagnosis of WG or MPA, 14% of patients will have a CV event. We have constructed and validated a tool to quantify the risk of a CV event based on age, diastolic hypertension, and PR3 ANCA status in patients without prior CV disease. In patients with vasculitis, PR3 ANCA is associated with a reduced CV risk compared to myeloperoxidase ANCA or negative ANCA status.

Original publication

DOI

10.1002/acr.20433

Type

Journal article

Journal

Arthritis care & research

Publication Date

04/2011

Volume

63

Pages

588 - 596

Addresses

Nuffield Orthopaedic Centre, Oxford, UK. ravi.suppiah@gmail.com

Keywords

Humans, Cardiovascular Diseases, Logistic Models, Risk Factors, Regression Analysis, Cohort Studies, Follow-Up Studies, Predictive Value of Tests, Adult, Aged, Middle Aged, Female, Male, Microscopic Polyangiitis, Granulomatosis with Polyangiitis